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Brazil sugar market note: October 2026

Lower sugar output in Brazil's Center-South, raw sugar near a 19-month high and what it means for buyers planning 2027 purchases.

26 October 2026 · 2 min read

Freshly harvested sugarcane stalks in front of a ripe cane field

Market commentary is general information, not trading or investment advice. Figures as reported on or before 26 October 2026.

Center-South: more cane, less sugar

The 2026/27 Center-South harvest is crushing more cane but making less sugar. According to UNICA data up to the end of August:

  • cane crushing reached 412.4 million tonnes, up 1.8% year on year;
  • sugar production fell to 24.1 million tonnes, down 10.3% from 26.8 million tonnes a year earlier.

The reason is the mix. Mills directed 53.4% of their cane to ethanol and only 46.6% to sugar.

Consultants now expect Center-South sugar output of around 38 million tonnes for the full 2026/27 season, against 40.4 million in 2025/26.

Prices: firm, near a 19-month high

Raw sugar on ICE No. 11 set a 19-month high above 21 US¢/lb in early October and settled at 20.2 US¢/lb on 23 October. Weather, including the El Niño event, and India’s export policy are the main drivers market analysts are watching.

Exports: lower, but still large

Brazil exported about 12.3 million tonnes of sugar in January–June 2026. That is 4.4% less than a year earlier, with export revenue down about 25% because of lower prices earlier in the year.

Forecasts for the 2026/27 season vary widely:

  • Safras & Mercado expects exports of about 29 million tonnes;
  • the USDA’s attaché forecasts 33.6 million tonnes (raw value).

What it means for buyers

  • Plan ahead. A lower sugar mix and firm prices reward buyers who contract early, particularly ahead of the 2027/28 Center-South crush, which starts in April.
  • Fix specifications and documents now. For container programmes, agree the grade, packing and document set before the season so that shipments can start as soon as the price suits you.
  • Be extra careful with “cheap” offers. In a firm market, offers far below the ICE benchmarks are even less credible than usual.

Sources

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